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Zepbound Vial Watch: Eli Lilly Earnings Q1 2024

QUICK POST CALL REACTION VIDEO ⬇️


Update # 1: Based upon the “key events” listed in the slide deck for the upcoming call, the single dose vial approval for Zepbound is omitted. Probably not a good indication initially. However Lilly has increased their forecast for the upcoming year by $2B citing increased manufacturing capacity. Since the North Carolina site would have already been baked into their anticipated capacity, the additional capacity will have to come from somewhere. We will be listening closely.



Update # 2: KwikPen approved in Europe (already in UK)


Update # 3: Reiteration of Mounjaro brand name not rebranded in UK for weight management


Update # 4: OSA trial was 70% male, submittals midyear, full results at ADA in June


Update # 5: Diabetes phase 3 trial for Retatrutide initiated


Update # 6: Eloralintide phase 2 trial initiated - Amylin agonist


Update # 7: Greater visibility into mfg capacity led to raising projections.


Update # 8: Lilly expects part D may reimburse for Zepbound for OSA, but emphases importance of TROA which they expect will be passed eventually, but not in 2024


Update # 9: Tirz vs Reta for NASH - full readout in June for Tirzepatide NASH study. FDA will have a hand in which direction to go.


Update # 10: Cagrisema and AMG133 vs Tirz - Cag adds pathways like Tirz but their 9 investigational meds for DM2 and obesity will compete stronger.


Update # 11: Monotherapy GIP vs Amalyn - could be used for maintenance


Update # 12: Zepbound to part D like Wegovy, expect coverage for both OSA and HFpE


Update# 12: Quickpen relieve demand in US? Lilly hasn’t ruled other presentations out. Considering an “all of the above”


Update # 13: Confidence CVOT study will show superiority to Trulicity


Update # 14: Orforglipron capacity due to complexity of small molecule mfg is not a concern given their competency in other small molecule meds. Capacity already exists to manufacture, unlike injectables. Expected 2026 launch.


Update # 15: Quality of weight loss, side effects, dosing frequency all focuses of future obesity medications


Update # 16: Current estimate when supply will meet demand is potentially next year. Mention of the potential expansion of quick pen and “other presentations”. A statement was also made that ultimately supply may not be figured out until the release of orforglipron in 2026.


Update # 17: Concorde, North Carolina —- built + line’s installed, working on qualification. This is faster than expected.


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