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Zepbound Vial Watch: Eli Lilly Earnings Q1 2024


Update # 1: Based upon the “key events” listed in the slide deck for the upcoming call, the single dose vial approval for Zepbound is omitted. Probably not a good indication initially. However Lilly has increased their forecast for the upcoming year by $2B citing increased manufacturing capacity. Since the North Carolina site would have already been baked into their anticipated capacity, the additional capacity will have to come from somewhere. We will be listening closely.

Update # 2: KwikPen approved in Europe (already in UK)

Update # 3: Reiteration of Mounjaro brand name not rebranded in UK for weight management

Update # 4: OSA trial was 70% male, submittals midyear, full results at ADA in June

Update # 5: Diabetes phase 3 trial for Retatrutide initiated

Update # 6: Eloralintide phase 2 trial initiated - Amylin agonist

Update # 7: Greater visibility into mfg capacity led to raising projections.

Update # 8: Lilly expects part D may reimburse for Zepbound for OSA, but emphases importance of TROA which they expect will be passed eventually, but not in 2024

Update # 9: Tirz vs Reta for NASH - full readout in June for Tirzepatide NASH study. FDA will have a hand in which direction to go.

Update # 10: Cagrisema and AMG133 vs Tirz - Cag adds pathways like Tirz but their 9 investigational meds for DM2 and obesity will compete stronger.

Update # 11: Monotherapy GIP vs Amalyn - could be used for maintenance

Update # 12: Zepbound to part D like Wegovy, expect coverage for both OSA and HFpE

Update# 12: Quickpen relieve demand in US? Lilly hasn’t ruled other presentations out. Considering an “all of the above”

Update # 13: Confidence CVOT study will show superiority to Trulicity

Update # 14: Orforglipron capacity due to complexity of small molecule mfg is not a concern given their competency in other small molecule meds. Capacity already exists to manufacture, unlike injectables. Expected 2026 launch.

Update # 15: Quality of weight loss, side effects, dosing frequency all focuses of future obesity medications

Update # 16: Current estimate when supply will meet demand is potentially next year. Mention of the potential expansion of quick pen and “other presentations”. A statement was also made that ultimately supply may not be figured out until the release of orforglipron in 2026.

Update # 17: Concorde, North Carolina —- built + line’s installed, working on qualification. This is faster than expected.

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