Lilly Announces a NEW GLP-1+ PEPTIDE!

Dave Knapp
1 hour ago
5 min read

Breaking news from the Q3 2025 Lilly Earnings Call

Original posted at obesity.news/ on Oct302, 2025

Eli Lilly just announced a new peptide called Brenipatide, a dual GIP and GLP molecule being studied for alcohol use disorder, asthma, and even opioid dependence.

That single sentence, buried deep in their Q3 2025 earnings call, might have been the most important one of all. Because this isn’t about weight loss anymore. It’s about craving, and how far these drugs might reach beyond food noise into addiction itself.

The Expanding Reach of GLP-1 Science

What started as a revolution in obesity care is evolving into something much bigger. Lilly confirmed that Brenipatide affects dopamine signaling, targeting the same reward pathways that drive both overeating and substance dependence. It’s early, but it’s the first clear signal that incretin science could reach into neuroscience, not just metabolism.

This ties directly into what I said in the podcast: we’ve spent years talking about food noise, but this shows us it might be the same neurological pathway behind craving noise. If GLP-1s can quiet the mind around food, why not alcohol or opioids too? That’s the question Lilly seems ready to answer.

Brenipatide isn’t the only one coming. Eloralintide, Lilly’s amylin agonist, will have Phase 2 data presented at Obesity Week next week, and could someday be combined with tirzepatide or retatrutide to deepen efficacy for patients with advanced metabolic disease.

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The Pill That Could Rewrite Obesity Care

Then came Orforglipron, Lilly’s oral GLP-1, and the star of this earnings call.

The company confirmed it will submit for global obesity approval by the end of 2025 and for type 2 diabetes in the first half of 2026. Even more significant: they plan to use the FDA’s new priority review voucher, which can shorten the approval window to as little as one to two months.

That means Orforglipron could realistically be on the market by Q1 2026, potentially beating Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy to the punch, depending on how the FDA prioritizes approvals.

Astoundingly, Lilly has already manufactured over a billion doses of Orforglipron. Nobody makes a billion doses of anything to sit on a shelf. This tells us the push to launch fast is very real.

But as I said in the video, the question isn’t when it’s coming, it’s how much will it cost.

The Cost Conversation

When asked if they’d launch Orforglipron at $100 to make it accessible, CEO Dave Ricks said no, claiming it would stifle innovation.

I disagreed on the recap, and I’ll say it again here. Orforglipron is an entry-level GLP-1, not a replacement for Zepbound or Mounjaro. Offering it at a lower price point could actually help patients maintain the weight they’ve already lost, not replace the higher-potency injectables in my opinion.

It would be reasonable to bring this pill to market at $100 or $150 a month. Realistically, though, Lilly will look at orfo as novel, the only “small molecule GLP-1”, while attempting to extract as much value as humanly possible.

If you follow the pattern, you can already see it: 40% of all new Zepbound prescriptions now come through Lilly Direct, up from 35% last quarter. That’s not just distribution, that’s complete dominance. It’s Lilly building an entire alternative healthcare system, one where they make the drug, set the price, and decide who gets it.

Zepbound’s Hold and Walmart’s Entry

Demand for Zepbound has tripled compared to this time last year, with patients paying about $500 out of pocket for therapeutic doses via Lilly.

Still, there’s more to come. Lilly just announced a Walmart partnership that will expand Zepbound vial access through retail pharmacy pickup, a move that could push Lilly Direct’s share of new prescriptions past 50% next quarter.

Again, that’s not simple innovation, it’s a complete end-to-end infrastructure. Lilly isn’t just the biggest player in GLP-1s anymore, they’re building the delivery system too.

Sidebar: The Metsera Tug-of-War

While Lilly was busy locking in its lead, a quieter battle was unfolding behind the scenes.

Pfizer made an offer to acquire Metsera, the small biotech developing long-acting GLP-1 and amylin therapies, potentially one-dose-per-month injectables. Then, out of nowhere, Novo Nordisk stepped in and outbid Pfizer, trying to pull Metsera under its umbrella and keep control of the next generation of obesity medicines.

If Novo succeeds, it preserves the duopoly between Novo and Lilly, two companies effectively controlling the global obesity drug market.

As I said in the episode, “that’s a flag on the play.” Because patients don’t win when two giants own the entire table. We need more entrants, more competition, and more pressure on price. Until that happens, the fight for affordability will stay uphill.

Retatrutide: What The Street Might Get Wrong

Retatrutide is being positioned for people with very high BMI and complex obesity-related conditions. However, the first Phase 3 trial we will get later this year, TRIUMPH-4, focuses primarily on pain relief in osteoarthritis, not weight loss.

That’s important, because when those results drop later this year, Wall Street is likely to overreact, if weight loss doesn’t separate meaningfully from tirzepatide. The trial wasn’t designed to show 30% weight loss however, it was designed to show improvement in pain and function.

My take is simple: we should expect headlines that say “Retatrutide disappoints,” if weight loss numbers from the trial ar anything short of astounding, but don’t believe them. The real weight loss data will come later, and when it does, I think Retatrutide will still prove to be the most powerful molecule we’ve ever seen for people living with severe obesity.

And here’s another subplot: Lilly is pushing to have Retatrutide classified as a biologic, which would give them 12 years of exclusivity instead of 5, and justify higher pricing. That’s part of the game they’re playing behind the scenes.

The Infrastructure Behind It All

Lilly will announce two new U.S. manufacturing sites later this year, joining new facilities in Texas and Puerto Rico dedicated to Orforglipron production.

They’ve also partnered with NVIDIA for AI-driven drug design, proof that they’re evolving from a pharma company into an infrastructure company for metabolic medicine. Lilly now controls everything from molecule creation to patient access. That’s extreme power, and they know it. So do investors.

The Key Takeaway

The shortages are over. The battlefield has entirely shifted to the arena of affordability and control.

The new molecules: Brenipatide, Eloralintide, Orforglipron, represent the next chapter of the GLP-1 revolution. But they also raise a harder question: what happens when the cure exists, but the cost keeps it out of reach?