NEW DATA: Zepbound Could Prevent 2,000,000 Heart Events Over 10 Years!

Dave Knapp
6 hours ago
4 min read

Original posted at obesity.news/ on Nov 03, 2025

When I first started making content on my journey with GLP-1 medications, I ever thought we’d be here talking about much more than weight loss.

But fast forward 3 years and these meds are changing not only our size, but our chances, our odds of living longer, healthier lives.

The TLDR is that these drugs are transforming the future of metabolic and heart health.

Another Day, Means Another Positive Study

A recent study published in the European Heart Journal Open compared tirzepatide (Mounjaro/Zepbound) with semaglutide (Ozempic/Wegovy) in people with obesity, but without diabetes or pre-existing heart disease.

SURMOUNT-5 followed participants for 72 weeks and used a standard Framingham Heart Study model to estimate each person’s 10-year risk of developing cardiovascular disease.

At the start, the average predicted risk of developing heart disease was about 9%. After treatment:

Tirzepatide lowered that risk by 2.4% points.
Semaglutide lowered it by 1.4% points.

Scaled to the U.S. population of people eligible for these medications, that could mean roughly 2 million heart events potentially prevented with tirzepatide versus 1.15 million with semaglutide.

Staggering numbers. The type of numbers that bolster our long held belief that this class of medications has the power to save our entire healthcare system.

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Important Context: It’s Predictive, Not Proof

While the data is extremely compelling, it is important to note that SURMOUNT-5 didn’t measure actual heart attacks or strokes. What it did to was project future cardiovascular risk based on

improvements in weight, blood pressure, and cholesterol.

That’s important context. Predictive studies help us see what could happen if those changes hold, but they don’t replace long-term outcome data. If anything this highlights the importance of patients staying on the medication, as we have seen this gives them the best “shot” at maintaining their weight loss, and subsequent improvements in biomarkers.

In the end, this was a promising forecast, but not a final verdict.

Further Context: The Recent SURPASS-CVOT Data

Recently, Eli Lilly presented full results from SURPASS-CVOT at the 2025 European Association

for the Study of Diabetes meeting in Hamburg.

This massive trial followed more than 13,000 people with type 2 diabetes and established cardiovascular disease, comparing tirzepatide directly with dulaglutide (Trulicity), a GLP-1 medication already proven to protect the heart in the landmark REWIND trial.

Here’s what the data showed:

Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), meaning heart attack, stroke, or cardiovascular death, were statistically similar between tirzepatide and dulaglutide.
Numerically, events were 8% lower with tirzepatide (HR 0.92; 95% CI 0.83–1.01), meeting criteria for non-inferiority. (Though it interestingly fell-short of meeting criteria that would show clear superiority).
Worth noting, Tirzepatide also showed better kidney outcomes, lower A1c, and lower all-cause mortality, though those findings were exploratory.

In short, tirzepatide matched an already cardioprotective GLP-1 drug and may have signaled incremental benefits.

So What Does It Mean for Patients

Together, these two studies tell a powerful story. SURMOUNT-5 showed that tirzepatide might predictively reduce heart disease risk in people without diabetes. SURPASS-CVOT confirmed that it performs as well as a proven GLP-1 medication in people who already have diabetes and heart disease.

That’s the bridge we’ve been waiting for, from projection to protection.

And thankfully, it’s reshaping how we (and hopefully insurers) think about these medications.This isn’t about which drug wins.It’s about understanding how they work differently and which one fits your body, your risks, your story.

Because GLP-1s like semaglutide already have established heart benefits.GIP’s contribution is newer, less defined, but it may build upon those benefits in ways we’re only beginning to understand.

Beyond Weight Loss

Every month, the evidence grows that these drugs do far more than control appetite.

They’re lowering blood pressure.Improving cholesterol.Protecting kidneys.And increasingly, reshaping the cardiovascular system itself.

This isn’t a cosmetic revolution, it’s a metabolic revolution.The kind that adds not just years to life, but life to those years.

The Bottom Line

SURMOUNT-5 gave us a glimpse of what’s possible.SURPASS-CVOT showed that tirzepatide stands shoulder to shoulder with an established heart-protective GLP-1.And the next chapter, SURMOUNT-MMO, due in 2027, will tell us how deep this protection goes for people living with obesity and multiple risk factors.

This isn’t about choosing sides between molecules.It’s about recognizing that, for the first time in modern medicine, we have tools that can rewrite the story of chronic disease.

These aren’t just weight loss drugs.They’re heart healing drugs.

Stay tuned to OnThePen.com for more updates and in-depth analysis on the latest developments in weight loss and diabetes treatments. Sharing this article is a powerful form of advocacy that brings us closer to our goal of educating the masses and reducing the stigma of obesity. If you found this article insightful, please share it within your networks, especially in Facebook groups and Reddit forums dedicated to GLP 1 medications and diabetes management. Together, we can make a difference.